From the Bank of Japan to raise the size of the 80 trillion bond purchases, to the European Central Bank's long-term reverse repurchase (LTRO) scale, and then to the Chinese central bank's unexpected interest rate cuts, the "loose storm" seems to be quietly sweeping the globe. However, in such a relaxed environment, the international gold price (1205.2, -6.4, -0.53%) is getting worse and worse, and investors are somewhat confused. Why is it that the global monetary easing is difficult to provide a comfortable rising environment for gold and silver, and why is the gold market dying when debts and stocks bloom?
First, monetary easing is not equal to inflation. At present, most investors may fall into such a misunderstanding: "As long as the currency is loose, the price of gold will rise." Gold is like a loose environment. This is true, but monetary easing must pass through investment, consumption, etc., by stimulating economic growth and then causing inflation, so that it can stimulate the unique "anti-inflation" property of gold. At present, although the euro (1.2474, 0.0005, 0.04%) regional debt has expanded to 3 trillion, but inflation is only 0.3%; and in China, 1.6% of the October CPI inflation index is even more useless for international gold. The land of Wu.
Secondly, the rise of the US dollar refers to the permanent pain of gold. Since the third quarter of 2014, the US dollar index has surged from 79.740 to an annual high of 88.463, an increase of approximately 10.94%. As the most direct currency conversion tool for gold, the ups and downs of the US dollar index almost eliminated all the advantages of the gold market, and once again verified the old Chinese saying: "One husband is a customs, Wanfu is not open."
Once again, the commodities were in danger and the gold and silver were dragged down. As a "representative" of the commodity energy sector, international crude oil (69.08, -0.23, -0.33%) has a long-term fate; under the smoke of the "price war" of US crude oil and Saudi crude oil, international oil prices have fallen and fell again. US crude oil has fallen from US$104.32/barrel in late June to US$66.66/barrel, and the price has been devastated. And the same as the "original ancestor" of the metal field as a commodity, the pressure of spot gold can be imagined!
From time to time, demand is sluggish, and gold is the key fulcrum. As the country with the largest demand for gold, China imported 69 tons of gold through Hong Kong in October, although it is higher than the 61.7 tons in September, but there is still a big gap compared with 129.9 tons in the same period of last year. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, three The total global gold demand in the quarter decreased by 2% to 929 tons, the lowest since the four seasons in 2009.
Finally, the central bank has fallen in alloy prices and wants to buy at the bottom of the market. As the undisputed “king of danger†in the currency field, the safe-haven charm of spot gold can only be reflected in the chaos of the world, especially in the current environment of the global economy. According to the statistics of the World Gold Council, when the price of gold in the third quarter plunged, Russia bought 55 tons of gold, accounting for 59% of the total global purchases. At the same time, Kazakhstan purchased 28 tons of gold in the third quarter, and Azerbaijan bought gold. 7 tons; in addition, the People's Bank of China hopes to try investment products other than US debt, so it may be increasing its gold reserves.
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