Planting area generally increased, whether the new cotton market can break the low price sideways

Since March of this year, cotton prices have fallen from a high of 33,000 yuan/tonne after a round of “lumbar-style” declines. They finally got support at 21,000 yuan in early September, and formed a sideways situation. Today, just at the beginning of the new year of cotton, the country's “2011 cotton temporary storage and storage plan” proposes that if the lint market price falls below 19,800 yuan/ton, the country will open up to purchase reserve cotton. Despite the support of storage and storage policies, the macro-economic risks have not been lifted, and the cotton farmers' textile and textile enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood. The focus of the market has been concentrated on the production of cotton in the new year.

This year, the planting area has generally increased. In the middle of this month, the cotton survey team of Merrill's Brokers Co., Ltd. has passed through several major cotton producing areas in Hubei, including Jingyang and Jingzhou, and there has been a small amount of bolls in the cotton fields along the way.

Due to factors such as high cotton prices last year and dry weather at the beginning of this year, the sown area of ​​cotton in our province was 20% more than last year.

In terms of growth, the growth conditions of Honghu and Zhijiang in the survey sites are relatively good. Cotton farmers generally harvested three or five hundred kilograms of flowers at an early stage. The average number of cotton stalks per plant is 50-60, and a few can have 70. The bolls in Qianjiang, Jingzhou and Hanchuan are concentrated between 40-50. The average yield per mu in Honghu and Zhijiang is expected to be 500-600 kg, an increase of 10%; Jingzhou, Qianjiang, and Fuyang are expected to be maintained at 400-500 kg, which is equivalent to last year.

Due to several heavy rains in July, the lodging loss of cotton fields in Qianjiang and Hanchuan was relatively large, cotton stalks were short and there was a small amount of withering; Jingzhou was greatly affected by drought during transplanting in April-May, and cotton fields did not grow. All, there are obvious signs of replanting, sparsely developed branches of slivers are late, and diseases and insect pests are more serious in Liyang area.

The artificial increase of agricultural resources caused the increase in cotton planting costs due to droughts and floods. Farm labour input this year has increased significantly. In several local farms in Jingzhou, there are many wells in the area. Despite continuous showers for three days during the survey, the ditch is still generally dry and there are more weeds.

According to Master Liu of Luanhe Township, there are 3 households drilling wells in 10 households this year. The cost of drilling wells plus pipeline facilities costs about 1,200 yuan. In the early period of Honghu Lake, irrigation was mainly conducted through the Yangtze River, and the cost was mainly borne by the local finance.

In terms of agricultural resources, the price of seeds did not change much, 50-70 yuan per pack, and the varieties were mixed. Most of them were based on Eza cotton, and there were many series. Pesticides and fertilizers have generally risen by nearly 20%, urea has risen to 100, compound fertilizers have risen to 160, and there has been a slight difference in the cost of preparations. The input of agricultural inputs is sometimes related to cotton planters' cotton planting requirements. Under average circumstances, pesticides will be 200 yuan. 300 yuan, please farm machinery 60-70 yuan / mu, agricultural film 25-30 yuan / mu, in general, the cost of agricultural resources per mu in 650-700 yuan.

Other miscellaneous expenses such as lease fees, general farms are reserved, sub-leases are available in other places, the annual cost of acre is around 250 yuan, and the average land cost of comprehensive acre is around 170 yuan. If the use of artificial, usually concentrated 2-3 days pick flowers, according to 80 yuan / day of manual calculation, the average expenditure of 100 yuan per mu increase. Considering renting land and collecting flowers, please use labor. The average cost of the Mu expenditure is around RMB 1,000. If coupled with the cost of drought-resistant wells, artificial seedlings, etc., high-end costs around 1,500 yuan / mu.

Sporadic opening, cotton farmers are expected to be higher this year, the country's national cotton storage and storage, cotton farmers generally do not know too much. The current early flowers have been listed on a sporadic basis, with Xiantao hawkers collecting 4.05 yuan/kg, Jingzhou Luohe 4.2 yuan, and Zhijiang 4.5 yuan. The price difference is mainly due to the difference in cotton quality and the smaller purchase volume.

Zhijiang local early flowers can be rolled out of the third grade cotton, and the high rate of clothing, test can reach 43%, despite the difficulty of sawtooth companies such a high lint percentage, according to 1.3 yuan of cottonseed, three-level flower processing The cost can also be maintained at around 19,000 yuan/ton, and there is ample profit margin regardless of the reserve reserve or spot sales. Based on the high prices last year, some cotton farmers are still waiting for 5 pieces of the price. At the same time, the local cotton farmers have greater resistance to the local purchase price of 4.2 yuan, because their initial expectations are all at 4.5 yuan/kg.

The stocks of large-scale textile companies are relatively stable. The textile enterprises selected for this survey are all above 100,000 ingots.

Relative to small and medium-sized textile enterprises, the capital strength of large enterprises is relatively substantial. Most of the interviewed enterprises stated that the bank index has not been used up yet, and the financial pressure is not great. Due to the maturity of sales channels and models, the product structure of large companies is relatively fixed. One-third of the companies in the sample have increased their use of polyester and viscose, and these companies originally produced blended yarns. The remaining 2/3 companies maintain full cotton yarn such as combing or carding. At the same time, in the purchase of lint cotton, import cotton and Xinjiang cotton are preferred, and the main difference is in the three-wire problem.

In raw material stocks, large-scale textile companies have maintained their inventory in January-February even though prices have continued to fall. For new cotton purchases, they are more interested but cautious. Since the new system reform has been delayed for five years, the 200-type enterprises can operate until 2014. Based on the threshold of storage and storage this year, textile companies are optimistic about the market of small-bag cotton. With regard to yarn inventory, the current balance of production and sales, yarn inventory has not seen a significant reduction, still maintained at the January-February level.

The increase in cost pressures promoted the recent increase in yarn prices in the restructuring structure of textile companies. Cards C32s and JC32s were quoted at RMB 26,500 and RMB 31,000, respectively, and were converted into raw materials for the fourth and third levels, respectively. Spinning had nearly one thousand yuan in profits. Although there is price increase in the downstream, the total number of orders is still small, and small orders are the main ones.

Half of the companies stated that the move was mainly due to the Christmas and Spring Festival orders, which were due to end at the end of October. Under the premise that tightening monetary policy will remain unchanged this year, when the new flower is centralized and listed, the fund issue will still become the main juncture for restraining the market from rebounding. Combined with the recent yarn performance, 70% of companies believe that purchasing and storage will surely be implemented. In November, cotton will still move closer to storage and storage prices.

In addition to the sluggish downstream market, textile companies still face multiple problems. Due to the long-term industrial surplus, the competitiveness of the cotton textile and processing industry is gradually declining. Faced with the increase in renminbi and labor costs in recent years, the scale of the company has not reached the high end. The actual scale is still difficult to solve.

Take processing costs as an example, mainly reflected in the increase in labor and electricity charges. A person in charge of Fuyang Xinyi Cotton Textile Co., Ltd. told reporters that the overall increase in labor costs this year is 10%-20%, the average annual income of ordinary spinning workers is about 20,000, compared with the local temporary workers 80-100 yuan per day, and the income of textile workers is partial. Low, and relatively speaking, there is limited room for improvement in the technical capabilities of spinning, so Pugong basically has no young people and is women over the age of 30. Second, on the electricity bill, this year's high price increase is 5 points, and the low price increase is 3 points. The cost of ton yarn is also increased by about 200 yuan.

Faced with the above situation, individual companies have begun to reduce the demand for labor by increasing equipment investment and pursue higher-end and more efficient products.

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