The April economic data released recently has made the macroeconomic trend more complicated. The price index of the price and production materials, which hit a new high for more than a year, indicates that inflationary pressures have suddenly increased, while the industrial growth rate of more than a dozen points indicates that economic growth has peaked. In addition, the spread of the sovereign credit crisis in Greece and other countries and the continued weakening of the euro will have an adverse impact on Chinese exports. These have increased the difficulty of judging the economic situation.
Previously, in response to possible inflationary pressures and overheating, the state has intensively introduced a number of regulatory measures, including the central bank's increase in the deposit reserve ratio, the issuance of 50-year bonds, and the local real estate launched to cope with and implement the “National Tenâ€. New rules and so on. At the beginning of the year, when the central government judged the economic situation this year, it used the words "more complicated", but now it seems that the complexity of the economy may exceed the central prejudgment.
Why do you say that? Two things have a big impact and may exceed the pre-judgment. First, the continuous drought in the southwest and the impact of extreme climate change on agricultural production in other places will definitely reflect the price of agricultural products, thus boosting inflation. Second, the accelerated rise in housing prices in March will make stable housing prices become The current urgent task.
Judging from the economic situation in the previous April and the recent trend of real estate, macroeconomic regulation has partially achieved its goal. First, economic growth has returned to near pre-crisis levels, indicating that the momentum of economic recovery has been established. Second, although the consumer price level in April reached 2.8% year-on-year, this is based on the lower base of the same period last year. Still moderate; third, firm housing prices have loosened. The severity of this real estate regulation has exceeded market expectations, which has led to a sharp decline in housing transactions in first-tier cities. I believe prices will also decline.
Of course, the macro-control is far from the time of the championship. From the economic data in April, both CPI and PPI exceeded market expectations, which indicates that the trend of inflation is further consolidated. In the future, the price of raw materials will continue to rise, and sooner or later, it will be transmitted to the consumer price.
It is worth noting that inflation is more likely to be further exacerbated by the advancement of resource prices. Economic restructuring is a prominent and long-term task of China's economic development. In the first four months of the year, due to the rapid economic development, the problem of structural distortion was more serious. It was reflected in the energy consumption of enterprises, and it was not reduced or decreased. This made the task of energy conservation and emission reduction in the last three quarters very serious. To this end, the State Council has issued a notice requesting timely promotion of resource tax reform, adjusting natural gas prices, implementing residential electricity ladder prices, implementing CBM, natural gas power generation on-grid tariffs and desulfurization tariff policies, and introducing incentives for waste heat and residual pressure to generate electricity and price policies. The change in resource prices will inevitably lead to a large increase in the price level. How to balance the relationship between inflation and structural adjustment will become a thorny issue.
In addition, attention should be paid to the impact of the European debt crisis and the weakness of the euro on Chinese exports. Although the world economy appeared normal after the financial crisis, the severity of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone countries exposed by Greece and its impact on the euro may have exceeded the original estimate. Given that the EU is China's larger trading partner, its fiscal policy is further tightened, economic growth will slow down, and the weakening of the euro will have a major negative impact on China's exports. This requires China's macroeconomic regulation and control to pay attention to the external environment, especially the economic trend of the euro zone, and prepare for the timely response.
Later, it should be emphasized that with the expected increase in real estate regulation and the increase in real estate construction, house prices should continue to fall in the coming months. However, if the economic overheating caused by inflation forces the government to suddenly adopt a rate hike, although it may lead to the bursting of the real estate bubble, it will also detonate the time bomb of local government debt and curb fixed asset investment. This "hard landing" approach is less good. Therefore, how to make inflation within a controllable range, housing prices gradually decline, exports continue to grow, and domestic consumer demand remains strong, such a relatively ideal state, testing the wisdom of macro-control authorities.
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