In the second half of the year, *** will enter the appreciation channel. Foreign trade enterprises should accelerate the creation of new competitive advantages.

After ending a wave of "six consecutive falls", the exchange rate finally rebounded. Market participants expect that in the second half of the year, the exchange rate will enter a appreciation channel. In the face of appreciation pressure, foreign trade companies need to improve their internal strength and create new advantages.

On July 21, the central parity rate of *** against the US dollar was reported at 6.1547, which rose by 21 basis points over the previous day, ending the "six consecutive losing" trend. Since the beginning of this year, the exchange rate of the *** against the US dollar has depreciated from 6.0990 at the beginning of the year to 6.1568 on July 18, a depreciation of 578 basis points from the beginning of the year. Market analysts believe that the devaluation trend formed in the first half of the year will come to an end. The exchange rate of *** will enter the appreciation channel in the second half of the year in the two-way fluctuation.

Analysts said that with China’s macroeconomic situation showing signs of stabilization and recovery, the exchange rate may rise slightly in the second half of the year, but there is limited room for appreciation. Foreign trade companies should seize the opportunity to accelerate the creation of new competitive advantages.

Increased float

“The unilateral trend of the past will come to an end, and now it has reached a basic equilibrium level.” For the current exchange rate, Wen Bin, a senior expert in the development planning department of Minsheng Bank, said in an interview with the International Business Daily.

Recently, the National Bureau of Statistics, the General Administration of Customs, and the Ministry of Commerce continuously published positive data. On July 16, Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a press conference that the overall economic performance of the national economy in the first half of the year was stable. But why does the exchange rate for the U.S. dollar not seem to be guided by these interpretations of China's economic fundamentals? Why?

Wen Bin said that from the analysis of economic fundamentals, the internal and external economic environment is undergoing changes. The exchange rate changes are affected not only by the domestic economic situation but also by the US economic trend, and the exchange rate market is more sensitive to macroeconomic reactions. For example, the data released by the US Department of Labor shows that non-agricultural employment increased by 288,000 in June, exceeding the market expectation of more than 70,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 6.1%, a record low for 6 years.

Looking back at the exchange rate movement since the first half of the year, it continued to depreciate to fluctuations. On January 14, after the central parity rate of the US dollar rose to a record high of 6.0950, it showed a rapid depreciation trend throughout the fluctuations. On June 3, with the price of 6.1710, this year's peak position on the chart of the ***'s central parity rate against the US dollar has fallen to the lowest level. From June 5th to October 10th and July 7th to October 10th, the middle price of *** against the US dollar rose to 6.1451 from 6.1708 and rose sharply to 6.1443 from 6.1658, which widened the fluctuation of the *** exchange rate against the US dollar. Magnitude.

Based on the rapid appreciation of the exchange rate between the *** and the U.S. dollar, as well as economic data such as China's foreign trade and purchasing managers' index, market analysts believe that the exchange rate of *** will enter the appreciation channel in the second half of the year. So, how should Chinese export companies respond?

Foreign trade pressure is still big

“As the exchange rate fluctuations increase, the divergence of behavior between the behavioral parties is also increasing.” Wenbin said that on the one hand, the Chinese economy will stabilize and pick up, and the economic fundamentals will drive the appreciation of ***; on the other hand, The economic recovery of the United States, further balance of international payments, and the rapid contraction of **occupies will limit the incentive for the continued appreciation of ***. "May be floating between 6.1-6.3."

Bai Ming, deputy director and researcher of the International Market Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce Research Institute, said that the biggest impetus for foreign trade development in the second half of the year was that the State Council issued the “Several Opinions on Supporting Stable Growth of Foreign Trade”, and that all ministries and commissions and local provinces and municipalities issued implementation rules. By promoting measures such as facilitating customs clearance, lowering the cost of doing business, and improving work efficiency, it can produce a real boost to foreign trade."

In addition, there are many favorable factors, such as the development of cross-border e-commerce, the cooperation of the BRICS countries, the creation of an upgraded version of the ASEAN Free Trade Area and negotiations in the free trade zone, the Shanghai Free Trade Pilot Zone, the “Silk Road Economic Belt” and the 21st Century. The implementation of the strategy of the Maritime Silk Road, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the integration of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei cycle will all bring growth to foreign trade growth. “However, there is still a lot of pressure on foreign trade growth in the second half of the year.” According to estimates, if the original foreign trade growth target is to be completed, it will be equivalent to maintaining an average growth rate of 15%-16% every month in the second half of the year. Although the US and European markets are recovering, the spillover effect on China is weakening. “The benefits of high-end industries remain in the country and South Korea and other places, and most of the low-end spill into Southeast Asia, and China faces challenges.” "Actually, foreign trade pressure is very high, and it is difficult for the exchange rate to appreciate significantly." Bai Ming stated that in the face of these favorable and unfavorable factors, foreign trade companies should have firm confidence and they should seize the benefits while accelerating the learning of financial operations. It is time to accelerate the pace of transformation and upgrading, and step up efforts to create new competitive advantages.