The event "This year's down apparel market is completely confusing!" was the sentiment of a 52-year-old veteran who opened a clothing store in Longxiang Clothing City. While sorting through down jackets in his shop, he shared his frustrations with reporters. "It was an unusually cold and chaotic year. Everyone rushed to buy goods, but the weather turned out to be warmer than previous years. Winter clothes couldn't sell, yet prices kept rising!"
This year’s winter clothing market has seen many seasoned merchants struggling, especially those who had invested heavily in expensive winter items. “If the warm winter continues, I’m worried the down product market will become very risky,†said one veteran merchant, echoing concerns shared by many businesses. However, this situation might benefit consumers, as companies may lower prices before the end of the year to clear inventory.
Rumors of a “Millennium Chill†earlier this year led some retailers to stock up on winter goods. Last week’s brief snowfall brought a small boost to the weak winter market, but it wasn’t enough to clear the massive winter stockpiles from December.
Cao Jun, who runs a foreign trade clothing store on Taobao, recently used his newly issued Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Platinum Card to spend over 300,000 yuan on 3,500 children's duvets. He hoped to profit from the anticipated cold weather, but later found himself in a tight spot when temperatures didn’t stay low. “Wholesale is good, but buying is tough. Now I just want to sell these products, even if it means lowering the price.â€
A similar scenario unfolded in other retail sectors. Qijin’s costume manager told reporters that he had heard rumors of a “Millennium Chill†months ago. As a result, he increased his inventory by 30% compared to last year, and even raised prices by 20%. But now, the goods are still sitting in the warehouse.
The Hangzhou Women’s Boutique District also reported mixed results. Although sales of down apparel spiked by 50%-80% after recent heavy snowfall, overall sales of down jackets were still lagging behind previous years.
Raw material costs have tripled, while finished product prices have risen by 20%. On one hand, inventory is moving slowly, and on the other, prices keep climbing. At the Bosideng store on Hushu South Road, mainstream models that cost around 800 yuan last year now reach nearly 1,000 yuan. “Similar styles are at least 20% more expensive this year,†said the store manager. According to him, rising raw material costs are the main reason for the price increase. “Excluding artificial and cotton fabrics, light feathers have tripled in price this year.â€
Xiaoshan, a major down production base in China, accounts for one-third of the national export market for down feathers and a quarter of the country’s total down product exports. Li Jiannan, the head of Xiaoshan Mingjia Feather, has been in the industry for nearly a decade. He confirmed the price surge: “Duck down prices remained low at around 100,000 yuan per ton for several years, but this year they suddenly jumped to nearly 300,000 yuan per ton.â€
Yao Yuejun, head of Zhejiang Joe and Joe Technology, believes that whether the winter is extremely cold or warm directly affects business survival. His company’s FeatherNet platform aims to create a transparent trading system for down products. “Before 2000, down prices were stable, around tens of thousands of yuan per ton. Back then, everyone had steady income.â€
However, after 2000, down prices rose by more than 20% annually, peaking in the winter of 2005. “At that time, the industry believed there would be a cold winter, so all major manufacturers overproduced down jackets. Prices hit as high as 400,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton. Many manufacturers took loans to stock up on down.â€
Unbeknownst to them, the winter turned out to be warm, leading to massive inventory buildup. “That year, at least a third of down jacket factories went bankrupt. The next year, prices dropped to around 80,000 yuan per ton and stayed low for years.â€
This year’s price fluctuations seem eerily similar to 2005. After four or five years of sluggish sales, many hoped for a profitable season. Instead, the “Millennium Chill†turned into a bubble, leaving many retailers in trouble.
“The final outcome depends on the weather—whether it’s warm or cold, and how many rainy or snowy days we get. It’s life or death for businesses,†Yao Yuejun said, clearly concerned about the uncertain future.
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