Listen to the millennium rumors that a large number of stocks down jacket stocks soared prices

The event "This year's down apparel market is completely incomprehensible!" was the sentiment of a 52-year-old veteran who opened a clothing store in Longxiang Clothing City. While browsing through down jackets in his shop, he shared his frustration with reporters. “It was an unusually cold and chaotic season. Everyone rushed to buy goods, but the weather turned out to be warmer than previous years. Winter clothes couldn't sell, yet prices kept rising!” This year’s winter clothing market has been tough for many seasoned merchants, especially those who had high expectations. “If the warm winter continues, I’m worried about the future of the down product market,” said one experienced seller, echoing concerns from many businesses. However, this situation might actually benefit consumers. If the weather remains mild, businesses may have to lower prices before the end of the year to clear inventory. There were rumors that some businesses had stocked up on cold-weather items last week. A brief snowfall brought a small spark of hope to this weak winter market, but it wasn’t enough to clear the large stockpiles of winter clothes accumulated in December. Cao Jun, who runs a foreign trade clothing store on Taobao, recently used his newly issued Industrial and Commercial Bank of China Platinum Card to spend over 300,000 yuan on 3,500 children’s duvets. He had hoped to make quick profits during what he believed would be a record cold winter, but the late drop in temperature left him feeling uneasy. “Wholesale is good, but now I just want to sell the goods at a slightly lower price.” A similar situation unfolded in other markets. Qijin Costume’s manager told reporters that he had heard about the “Millennium Chill” months ago. As a result, he ordered 30% more inventory than usual, and the price of this batch was 20% higher than the previous year. Now, the goods are still sitting in the warehouse. The head of the Hangzhou Women’s Boutique District also noted that although sales of down apparel surged by 50%–80% after recent heavy snow, overall sales of down jackets still lagged behind previous years. Raw material prices have tripled, while finished product prices have risen by 20%. On one hand, inventory is slow-moving, and on the other, prices continue to climb. At the Bosideng store on Hushu South Road, the price of mainstream down jackets increased from around 800 yuan last year to nearly 1,000 yuan this year. “Similar styles are at least 20% more expensive this year,” said the store manager. According to them, the main reason for the price increase is the rising cost of raw materials. “Excluding artificial fill and cotton, light feathers have tripled in price this year.” Xiaoshan, a key production base for down products in the country, accounts for one-third of the national export market. Li Jiannan, the head of Xiaoshan Mingjia Feather, has spent nearly a decade in the industry. He confirmed the sharp rise in duck down prices: “For several years, duck down was priced around 100,000 yuan per ton, but it suddenly jumped to nearly 300,000 yuan per ton this year.” Yao Yuejun, CEO of Zhejiang Joe and Joe Technology, believes that extreme weather—whether extremely cold or warm—can mean the difference between survival and failure for companies. His company, FeatherNet, is developing a forward trading platform for down products. In his memory, “Down prices were stable, ranging from tens of thousands of yuan per ton until 2000. Back then, everyone had steady income.” However, after 2000, down prices began rising by more than 20% annually, reaching a peak in the winter of 2005. “Back then, there were rumors of a cold winter, so major manufacturers overproduced down jackets. Prices soared to as high as 400,000–500,000 yuan per ton. Many manufacturers took bank loans to stock up on down.” But the result was a warm winter, leaving warehouses full of unsold goods. As interest rates piled up, the clothes remained unsold. “That year, at least one-third of down jacket factories went bankrupt. The next year, prices dropped to around 80,000 yuan per ton and stayed low for years.” This year’s price fluctuations seem eerily similar to 2005. After four or five years of sluggish sales, many hoped this year would finally bring profitability. But instead, the so-called “millennium chill” led to a down jacket bubble. “The final outcome of whether the weather is warm or cold, and how much rain or snow there is, determines the fate of businesses,” Yao Yuejun said, expressing his deep concern.

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